A Tale of Two Bidens
While the White House touts successes, the rumblings grow within the party about 2024. Will Gavin Newsom be the new Ted Kennedy?
Lately, the Biden Administration and the media have been touting a return to form for the president in the wake of several legislative wins and a flexing of foreign policy muscles after the takedown of Ayman al-Zawahri (although some terrorism experts have claimed Biden overstated al-Zawahri’s overall role in various attacks.) Headlines such as “The same Joe Biden suddenly looks different” (CNN) and “Joe Biden approval ratings: US President enjoys approval surge as agenda accelerates” (The Express) have begun to pop up across the media landscape.
However, even as the Biden Administration seems to be telling one story, a far different narrative has been unfurling across the Democratic Party. While it didn’t start with Representaive Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), she is the latest and possibly loudest voice echoing a growing dissent in the ranks of the blue party.
In an interview with the New York Times editorial board, she said "Off the record, he's not running again.” This comes after earlier statements from Maloney on CNN that “I want you (Biden) to run. I happen to think you won’t be running, but when you run or if you run, I will be there 100 percent.”
It can’t be ignored that there is a very interesting line in The Week’s coverage of the interview, reporting credited to Grayson Quay : “During the exchange that preceded the question about Biden, the 76-year-old congresswoman seemed to become confused.”
A notable line to include in an article about whether or not the 79-year-old Biden should run again, especially when there is a discussion about his own mental and physical state.
A July CNN poll said 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters wanted someone other than Biden to run in 2024. This is up from 51% at the beginning of the 2022.
The opinions of some elected officials seem to reflect the voting public. Maloney is just the latest Democrat to voice concerns about whether the incumbent president should run again:
Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who happens to be running against Maloney, initially refused to comment on the issue of Biden’s re-election, although of late has been more supportive, especially in the wake of a third candidate in the race, Suraj Patel. He called out both opponents for their statements (or lack thereof) with comments like “The rookie on this stage is the only one who didn't just spend seven days embarrassing themselves by throwing President Biden under the bus for re-election in 2024.”
In a recent interview with MinnPost, Representative Angie Craig (D-Minn.) said “I think the country would be well-served by a new generation of compelling, well-prepared, dynamic Democrats who step up." When asked if she would support Biden in a re-election bid, Craig responded with “I would say we need new leaders in Washington up and down the ballot in the Democratic Party.”
Representative Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), has been supportive of the current Biden Administration, but does not support a re-election and doubled down during a recent campaign stop. “This isn’t about the here and now. This is about the future, and I stand by my comments,” he said. “I think 2024 is going to be an opportunity, not to mention a national need for a new generation of leaders on both sides of the aisle, not just the Democratic side of the aisle.”
Former Representative Joe Cunningham (D- S.C.), who is currently running for Governor in South Carolina, told CNN: “Yeah, I think we need to have a new generation of leadership emerge … Democrats have a very deep bench, and it’s time to allow a new generation to emerge and new talent.”
Perpetual thorn-in-the-side of the Biden administration Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) even waded into the discussion by saying he needed to see who was on the ballot against the president. “If Joe Biden runs again and he is the Democratic nominee, depending on who the Republican nominee is, we will just have to wait and see,” Manchin said.
The response? Reuters reported a White House aide said that it would be “foolish” to dump Biden. Not because he was a strong leader or had support from the voters. "It's not like we have a ready alternative," the aide explained.
Only time will tell if Biden will indeed run, but according to insiders there are several plausible scenarios:
Biden runs. If he wins, there are those who wonder if he will finish out his term. If he does leave office due to health or other issues, Vice President Kamala Harris would then become president. However, there are those who say that Biden may sidestep Harris and make someone such as Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg his running mate in 2024. These rumors have been rumbling for a long time and Biden himself has made statements to the contrary. If Biden loses, it will be a destructive force against the Democrats that will cause a complete re-order within the party.
Biden steps aside and anoints another to take his place. Again, there are those who point to Harris (many suggesting she pick Buttigieg as her running mate), but there are others waiting in the wings such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and many believe he has his eye squarely on the Oval Office. Some experts believe this scenario is unlikely, if only because a significant number of Democrats still believe Biden is the only candidate who can beat Trump.
Biden runs and is faced with a primary opponent who he may or may not defeat. Again, someone like Newsom may have enough support to take Biden on and even win the nomination. Another potential opponent could be Beto O’Rourke, depending on the outcome of his Texas Gubernatorial race against Greg Abbott.
If Biden is indeed faced with primary opponents, it wouldn’t be the first time in American political history. Presdients Carter, Ford and even George H.W. Bush faced primary opponents. While the incumbents all secured their party’s nominations, these three examples also lost the general, which some analysts have attributed to the splintering of their base and needing to mount a primary battle, the candidates lost valuable time and energy heading into the general election and their ultimate defeat.
While no sitting president has lost the nomination of his party, the current climate is very different than those seen before. Taking into consideration the economy (and whether or not it is believed we are in a recession), the uncertainty of post-Covid life, the general opinion of the president and a potential opponent in Donald Trump (or other possible Republican nominees), anything could happen.
Great article. As you may suspect, I have ideas on this. Biden's approval ratings affect the high grass of political pundits, blowing them in the direction of "Look at the energy of the administration! Look at all their success! Biden 2024 is a sure thing!" Next week, they'll be predicting his political demise.
Biden himself is unlikely to step aside, anoint an heir apparent, or dump Harris from the ticket. Like Trump, if he's alive, he'll run. If he's not alive, the Democratic Party will plan to nominate Harris and see how the primaries go to pick a running mate. In this scenario, were I Gavin, I'd run. But it all promotes weakness for the Dems. A Ron DeSantis, if he can reign in the MAGA, can beat any of them. Lousy candidates (see Truman, Harry, 1948) can become great ones with the right motivation and message. Do we need new people in politics? Yes. But they have to believe in something that resonates with most of us, then run on that.